Here is a text reproduced with the permission of the author Marc Durand, doct-ing geologist
Retired Professor, dept. Earth sciences, UQAM
"What is the reason for the rush current oil industry rushing on shale gas in Quebec is the virtual absence of appropriate regulation in this type of operation. The industry is currently street where they have the fewest constraints. Quebec had sometimes had this image "republic banana "to the mining industry. The gas industry has been able to maneuver well: it has poached some big names well placed in government or ex-directors of Crown corporations. The good cronyism with the Liberal government in there hiring ex is a good maneuver to secure inputs for many politicians maneuver remained in place, which in fact are not very competent and knowledgeable on this issue geology. We'll drill here, because little have been put in place to regulate. Elsewhere in other states in the U.S. (NY, Pa., for example) the regulations are more restrictive and the industry knows it must act quickly here too.
The gas is still very abundant on earth and there are many other sources as shale gas. Prices are currently low for natural gas. The industry still sees a profit in the shale with the possible fracturing technique, but as and when the rules will be set up, profitability may be impaired. This industry does not guarantee that all these wells, all these massive shale hydrofracture will simply not abandoned, if extraction continues to be competitive with other gas sources. Impacts on groundwater movement will not stop it either. There is simply no technical solution to deliver the rock in the condition it was before. The deep groundwater is very saline, up to ten times that of seawater, they are confined in the wild by the many layers of very low permeability in the superimposition of geological strata. Drilling and hydraulic fracturing increases by several orders of magnitude the permeability of the massive, it is in hydraulic communication permeable zones previously isolated. The formation of Utica in the Lowlands, is absolutely not in reality as shown in simplistic presentations Industry: they describe their operations as drilling in an even layer in depth at 2000m in 1000 or aquifers. Two visions biased because: 1) communications are possible with the lower aquifers down to a few hundreds of meters below the surface, 2) Utica is not uniform and monolithic as the gas industry presented at the meetings with the public. 
Other major confusion presented by the oil industry: it ignores the amount of contaminant releases minerals that the process generates. In the video for "Discovery" of 14 November, the geologist Marianne Molgat Coy Talisman of Calgary takes an affirmation of his Co. to the effect that the water found in wells are almost not contaminated, "less salty than the ocean". Here there is great confusion, which is accidentally or intentionally I do not know, between the actual salinity of deep waters and salinity being measured, either well water or in the back waters of fracturing. We can talk about the actual salinity of groundwater in the Utica, like any other geological formation, by obtaining downhole samples undiluted by any technique or the other, well water are a mixture two waters: 1-water injected by the technical and 2-natural waters (scarce) existing in nature. Worse, the salinity of reflux during and after the injection of huge volumes for hydrofracturing diluted so real extreme salinity. Analyses of waters of reflux not constitute any usable data to discuss salinity and water mineralization of Utica. I found very few reliable measurements of the actual salinity of deep waters in the Lowlands of the St. Lawrence. Analysis exists for other training to these great depths and are, as is predictable, highly mobile and extremely low mineral content. Analyses of deep natural and undiluted by outside input exist: ex. Junex has found so salty that it can sell them as replacement of deicing salt in the Department of Transport! The firm's well publicized on its website: "salinity varies from 200g / l 360g / l or, for example, a degree of salinity from 10 to 12 times that of seawater ( source http://www.junex.ca/fr/storage/solnat.php). Quebec grants permits for this water, diluted over a hundred times that used in the injection be treated in small treatment plants, not at all designed for this type of release minerals. Government discourse is heavily "contaminated" by the industry propaganda. In fact, currently, almost all data supplied from the gas industry, and departments are poorly equipped to do independent studies. The directive seems to come from above is 
economic development first. In Lowlands St. Lawrence shale formations and shale (Utica, Lorraine) are cut by numerous faults and fractures of unknown probably a very small percentage mapped. These faults cut across all strata, the Utica and what covers it up to the surface. They also communicate with aquifers which are located wells. Traffic, trade is extremely slow and low flows in natural conditions
massif; everything changes with, during and after the extraction process gas. As suggested by the expert Win McIntyre, an engineer from upstate New York, interviewed in the report of the Program Discovery
last Sunday, "no gas extraction should be done in areas where aquifers exist. For Quebec, it means no extraction Lowlands St. Lawrence, which are fully occupied by a rural settlement which depends on water resources. It was not even in Quebec completed a mapping these aquifers, they may sell off cheaply. The industry, and worse, draft government regulations, are to discuss current and show that the precautions are taken during drilling operations. Nothing in this problem only applies to what may occur after the abandonment of wells in the long term.
The shale or schist Utica covers older formations, limestone and sandstone, which are permeable. The few studies Water in these deeper layers show very high salinities, well above that of seawater in the natural conditions of the agricultural plain south of St. Lawrence, these deep waters are currently well confined by strata shale and shale that covers them. The project to extract gas from shale in the plains of St. Lawrence involves irreversibly fracturing the outermost layer of impermeable bedrock on nearly 10,000 km2 to extract the trapped gas. This layer has a thickness ranging between 90 and 300m, the gas is present in the low porosity of about 3%. The fracturing is a technique that extreme divide up a layer raincoat over a large part of the plain inhabited between Montreal and Quebec City.
This technique is applied only recently to the massive shale and is intended to break the enormous volumes and does recover, at most, 20% gas content. When the flow of gas wells is no longer considered viable, it will still be 80% of gas in place. What will it circulations of water and the gas in the massive newly fractured during the decades that followed, when gas pharmacies have packed up and cashed in their profits?. In 10000km2, gas and water depths will circulate in a massive shale and shale become thousands times more permeable. Contaminants and gases can migrate thousands of times more easily than before. They will eventually reach the groundwater surface by numerous fractures and faults present and probably also by the thousands of gas wells that are never closed as well as the rock that was there before.
How is it that some may now see a possible bonanza? How is it that the industry that only removes the 20% easiest to extract in the gas reserve could make it profitable? If we now asked the industry to create a reserve fund to repair and compensate for all costs actually present and especially future, the billions required would be much higher than all the profits that sparkle now. There is no economically feasible way to deliver the massive shale in its original condition. Once we broke in and opened cracks were injected sand, it is impossible to recover the Utica in its original condition. Profitability is simply because the government will allow the industry to break the trillion m3 of rock, recover the gas that will be out in the early years (about 20%) and leave it all there like that (methane still in place, the rock made thousands of times more permeable etc.). and go. Why? because it goes deep, it is not visible from the surface. Nevertheless, it modifies irreversibly bedrock. In one or two generations, we may have found a much better technique to properly exploit this wealth we may find that unfortunately in the plain of St. Lawrence, the "massacre" made from 2011 to 2020 by hydrofracturing which will "skim" 20% of gas, will greatly complicate or even prevent the new technique.
Another cause of the rush current in Quebec, it costs to buy ridiculous Quebec exploration rights gas. The cost of exploration permits in the mining industry is traditionally low per hectare, as this is a policy that applies to conventional mining exploration. To find a classic single deposit of gold or copper for example, it is necessary to explore thousands of acres. The politics of mining rights is to promote mining development. When a deposit is finally found, which contains per hectare is a great value, but Coy exploration has also paid for the mineral rights to thousands of others that they remain sterile. Applied to the operation of the Utica shale gas, is an aberration! The rights of exploration and extraction of gas fractured almost the entire volume of rock in a formation of shale that stretches from Vermont to Montmagny, it should not be sold a policy conceived in another era where no one had foreseen such a case . The gas industry has quickly grasped the ignorance of our politicians, officials and the maladjustment of our rules mining, rushing for a low cost but ridiculous on the mineral rights. This is especially the creams that 20% of the resource they can now consider it to be profitable. Otherwise, with real rules and the obligation to create a background for the billions of damage in one or two generations, the profitability of the process would fly away.
For the "cons" more apparent on the surface, the industry uses words that are reassuring and has hired some "local" to transmit. But we simply can not trust the discourse of the petroleum industry. Always and everywhere the industry uses an approach that would rather take the risk of paying for damages after the fact, it's much cheaper as well, because there are four steps before you get to be obliged to pay:
1) It is necessary that the damage is found: in geology, it goes deep further opportunities for direct observation. It takes sophisticated detection tools that they alone possess the most often;
2) The worst damage established in the long term the industry will have long since packed up before it begins to appear and can not could therefore legally be a direct link between the two;
3) Even if there are immediate damage (eg gas leak almost simultaneously with the operations), there are many opportunities for industry to deny the causal and this is what they are currently in the United States. In reality, proof beyond a reasonable doubt can cost as much to establish that the price of a well and it is individuals who are injured, they do not measure up to the size and expertise of pharmacies.
4) Finally, for those few cases where the public image of the case begins to represent a cost, then the industry agrees to indemnify and repair. But in the end, with all the previous steps, the industry pays ten or a hundred times cheaper, because 99% of cases beyond one of the three previous steps.
Absolute measures to avoid all risks simply do not exist. Measures to halve the risk cost billions to implement consistently. Sometimes states eventually impose, profitability fell sharply; industry can go elsewhere where the rules are less restrictive, or accept them if there is no alternative. But even accepting in principle the rules, there is always the possibly non
compliance with rules, that is to say the offenses. There is also a stepwise process before paying and we return to 1, 2, 3 listed above.
The speech of the oil industry for its approach to the shale gas is no more clear than with oil pollution. Moreover, have you ever thought the explanation that this same industry advance to justify the increased spontaneous
oil prices to approach some long leave on vacation?
You can not trust either the government of Jean Charest for the shale gas, because it has clearly been courted very buddy buddy with the industry. Blinded by the economic outlook, he does not see that the economic benefits in the short term can never compensate for the enormous environmental costs in future generations.
The gas in the Utica shale has been around for 400 million years And can wait another few décennies.Laissons to future generations, so she can better absorb the debts that they bequeath. In 30 or 50 years there will surely be a more efficient process than the current technique, which recovers only 20% while 100% of irreversible damage. For me, it's not only not in shale gas and yes to the moratorium and is a non-final in fracturing, not the current technique in populated areas.
What about exploration permits already granted? Nothing special I think, they are allowed paid cheap pharmacies that can Always use to prospect for real deposits of oil or gas. A real field is a place where
natural fractures in fairly good concentration contain recoverable gas in a conventional manner. There is little chance that it finds more than a few wells in all the Lowlands, but it is consistent with the ridiculously low price
of licenses they have purchased. I think it will suffice to only legislate to ban outright the fracturing and the massacre of 10 000k2 depth of territory by 10 to 20 000 wells - a pure aberration!
Marc Durand, doct-ing geologist
Retired Professor
dept. Science Earth, UQAM
Shefford, December 2010
Further comments on the management of risk:
The first case of groundwater pollution by the oil industry in Mercier took place in 1968, the Quebec government has taken four years to rescind the permit it had granted in ignorance of the real hydrogeological risks. This allowed $ 150
cost us collectively since 1972 tens of millions. Forty years later, this problem now managed by the Ministry of the Environment, still has no solution and the taxpayers have not finished paying millions each year for this single case. Solutions excavation techniques were considered in 1980, but none was implemented because the estimated cost, about $ 40M at the time. It could reach a much higher cost in 2010 (ten times, most likely). The court actions to force the oil industry to get involved in a solution have all failed miserably. The industry has always triumphed in the litigation because it has consistently used the opportunity to appear before the court, any lingering doubts in the scientific concepts that govern the flow of groundwater. And the problem Mercier is between 2 m and 30 m deep, and forty years later, we still discussing the final technical solution. Imagine when we have to deal with problems at the bottom of wells 1000 m deep! And the 10,000 wells, there will be problems: ten, twenty or a hundred cases
Mercier, will cost us billions to manage. For Mercier, the first major case that the Ministry of Environment has had to manage the studies followed by prosecution, followed by new studies, etc.. dragged on for 40 years. None of the attempts to deal with the oil industry has resulted in a final and the lawsuits were lost against the oil industry: the law is totally inappropriate to these questions.
In hydraulic fracturing, we do not scrutinize far propagate fractures. Once these abandoned wells and fields of newly fractured rock areas are bedrock that are absolutely
more rain, as they were before. It is an irreversible modification of the bedrock.
The speed (v) subsurface fluid flow is controlled by two parameters: the permeability coefficient (k) and the hydraulic gradient (I) the simple relationship v = KXI
In its natural state, the gas is trapped in the shale porosity, permeability of the rock has a very low value and also the gradient (~ 0.001). Fracturing increases by several orders of magnitude the value of k and injection pressures to fracture the rock are extreme, five to ten times the hydrostatic pressure gradient, so i reaches values a thousand times that of natural conditions with abrupt changes in time. The result is the product of these two parameters, which are each increased thousands of times: v = KXI. This result expresses the velocity with the new conditions of fluid migration. Speed almost zero before, so we go to circulation that are not at all negligible. In almost all hydrofracture in bedrock associated Gas, surely we will connect the hydraulic area of operation with non-fracture zones mapped in connection with surface slicks. For each km2 of territory, the probability of overlap such hazards can be estimated (1%, 5%?). As you attack all 10 000km2 of Utica, a statistic that is more abstract. For each drill, this may be a statistical possibility, but as it tackles the entire volume, the question of whether there will be incidents do not arise in statistical terms, it actually becomes a certainty. It remains to estimate the number of problems for the 10 000 wells (10, 50, 100, 200?).
In the best case, the layers are going to be affected in ten, twenty or a hundred years. In the worst case, in a few weeks that it manifests itself. But it will happen in a high percentage of cases, if one includes the long term.
the current profitability of this operation is the wind, because if you do a cost analysis of insurance industry should pay for each well, the permit should not be ridiculously so low ($ 100 in 2010!), but tens of millions of dollars. No industry will drill wells at this price, because the benefit disappears. "
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